Demand Forecast models based only on the historical final balance data of room nights (or arrivals, etc…)
Same Date- Last Year and Dynamic Average are the most known models.
Same Date – Last Year Calculation is done according to the hotel occupation on the same day of the previous year.
The number of guests on Monday of the first week of March 2014 is estimated looking back at the number of guest on Monday of the first week of March 2013.
Calculations must consider any variable, especially events, when comparing dates.
Dynamic Average Calculation is made by obtaining the historical average occupancy for n past periods. It has the benefit of attenuating the influence of dates on which occupancy is higher than average.
using the same example as before, the average of the first Mondays of March in the last four years.
As a reference date it is also possible to use one or more days from the year in progress, providing they are similar in terms of hotel activity to the date under analysis.